Standing on One Leg: The Future of the Russian Nuclear Triad

This study begins by describing the current Russian nuclear triad of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), ballistic missile nuclear submarines (SSBN), and strategic bombers. A discussion of the evolution of Russian nuclear weapons doctrine and policy to the current "launch on warning" doctrine is followed by a consideration of the seminal question in terms of pros and cons--reasons why Russia might logically either retain or divest herself of her nuclear triad. After describing the smaller but more capable triad that might exist in 2010, this study closes by concluding that Russia views the triad as key to her national security and identity and will retain and modernize her nuclear triad, regardless of obstacles.