French Security Policy in Transition: Dynamics of Continuity and Change: Institute for National Strategic Studies Mcnair Paper 38

Publisher Marketing: Since 1989, French Defense and security policy has been undercut by changes in the external environment and domestic pressures to deal with the challenge of economic modernization. The Soviet revolution of 1989, the reunification of Germany, the collapse of the soviet Union, and the experience of coalition warfare during the Gulf War - all have challenged the assumptions and realities underlying the Gaullist synthesis. Above all, the French position on security independence has been put into question. The main hope has been for a European Alliance to supplant the American one over time in the face of a gradual process of change within Europe - but change has not been gradual within Europe. The European Union is challenged by discontent within Western Europe. A new Central Europe has emerged that has yet to find its place in European or global politics. A new Russia is emergent in which nationalism is defining an assertive role for the Russians within Europe, but at the same time the economic weakness of Russia limits its ability to play such a role. Notably, the election of President Clinton has added another challenge. The French have grown used to an assertive American role within Europe and have defined their role in part as counterbalancing the challenge of the United States. Although this definition of the French role persists (the French press's treatment of the GATT debate is typical of this definition of the French role), many senior French government officials are more concerned about the withdrawal of the United States from active engagement within Europe than the mindless countermanding of US influence. For example, during the 1993 year end TV retrospective, General Moriollon was interviewed by a French journalist who asserted the following: Isn't the US trying to assert its leadership through the UN? Moriollon said, No. The United States is reluctant to participate within UN missions and is very reluctant to become engaged in Bosnia. Clearly the young French journalist was shocked with this realistic response. Moriollon added: I have just returned from the United States and know what I am talking about. In response to the changing environment, the Balladur Government has promoted the de facto policy of transition in French foreign and security policy. But the transition has been only partial in nature: the Balladur government is a cohabitation government. Power is shared between the President and the Prime Minister in the actual conduct of foreign and security policy. In addition, the Balladur government is itself a coalition among right and center right parties. There is no clear consensus on the definition of a new French synthesis of foreign and security policy. Perhaps the election of a new President of the Republique in 1995 will lead to an explicit redefinition of the Gaullist synthesis or its replacement by something new. Contributor Bio:  University, National Defense Alexander Woodcock is currently Principal Operations Research Analyst at MITRE Corporation, a consultant to the National Defense University, and an Affiliate Professor at the School of Public Policy, George Mason University. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Medicine, a foreign member of the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences, and a full member of Sigma Xi. He was a consultant to the Institute for Defense Analyses, the Naval Research Laboratory, and the intelligence community. He was also a Senior Research Professor and Director of the Societal Dynamics Research Center at the School of Public Policy, George Mason University. Dr. Woodcock was Chief Scientist, Vice President, and Director of the Advanced Mathematics Program, BAE SYSTEMS-Portal Solutions (formerly Synectics Corporation), a Guest Professor at the Swedish National Defence College, and a Visiting Professor at The Royal Military College of Science, England. He is the author of Assessing Iraq's Future, published by the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences and co-editor with John Dockery of The Military Landscape: Mathematical Models of Combat. Dr. Woodcock has a PhD in biology and an MSc in biophysics from the University of East Anglia, England, and a BSc with Honours in physics from Exeter University, England. Samuel Musa is a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) of the National Defense University. He has held the Homeland Security Science and Technology Chair at CTNSP. He was previously Associate Vice President for Strategic Initiatives and Professor of electrical and computer engineering at Northwestern University. He has served in various positions in academia, government, and industry, including University of Michigan, University of Pennsylvania, Institute for Defense Analysis, and Office of the Secretary of Defense. Dr. Musa served on the Defense Intelligence Advisory Board, Arm y Science Board, and Air Force Scientific Advisory Board. He was Executive Secretary of Defense Science Board Summer Studies and Task Forces, and a member of the Scientific and Technical Intelligence Committee of the Director of Central Intelligence. Dr. Musa received his BA and BS degrees in Electrical Engineering from Rutgers University, and MS and PhD degrees in Applied Physics from Harvard University.